The consumer dividend is 160 billion a year? Help you calculate the two-child economic account

From the preparation of the second child to the child's growth, there are 7 stages before birth, in the neonatal stage, in the early childhood stage, in the elementary school, in the middle school, in the university stage, and after the university graduate.

Last week, the news that the two children were fully released was widely concerned by the society, but the birth of a baby, need to face many economic problems, and the gentleman i financial first made a professional economic interpretation.

Last Thursday, i Cai launched the first time, "Explosion | Two children fully open, how much money for a single birth (with two children concept stocks)", subject to more than 30,000 yuan onlookers. With the continuous liberalization of the two-child policy, the gentleman's i-finance also launched the "two children to come, what adjustments should you make for your house?" The "Two Children Policy will affect 10 things in real estate" article.

More than one baby is equal to buying one more suite.

From the preparation of the second child to the child's growth, there are 7 stages before birth, in the neonatal stage, in the early childhood stage, in the elementary school, in the middle school, in the university stage, and after the university graduate.

Take the 0-3 age newborn stage as an example. Based on the current consumption level, newborns need about 50,000 milk powder and nutrients, 20,000-50,000 for early childhood education, and 20,000 for clothing and diapers. Please babysitter, but also about 150,000. In summary, the neonatal stage needs 90,000-270,000 yuan. In addition to the use of children in primary, secondary and university stages, it takes between 680 and 2.3 million to raise a child. These are just based on current market standards, not considering inflation, and not considering expenses such as the degree room. If you follow the 8,000 × 80 level = 640,000 to buy a suite, a more than one child is equal to buy a suite.

"Two children" industrial chain investment

According to Huatai Securities, the consumption dividend contained in the comprehensive liberalization of the two-child policy is about 120 billion to 160 billion yuan per year. In terms of the concept of two children, the exploration of investment opportunities can be carried out around seven aspects of clothing, food, housing, use, travel, entertainment and medicine for newborn babies. The maternal and child medical equipment and medical service targets are expected to directly benefit from the growth of business volume brought about by the release of the two children. The domestic children's medicine is in short supply, and the policy support is expected to fall. The main children's medicine enterprises are expected to benefit from the policy dividend and industry development. The increase in the number of newborns brought directly can directly stimulate the demand for milk powder, the toy industry, children's clothing and so on.

In addition, we will focus on the relevant industries that benefit from the growth of demand during prenatal and neonatal infants.

Real estate industry directly benefits

The most important demographic factor for the real estate industry is the net population growth rate. The rapid development of the current real estate industry net decade is largely due to the second and third wave of baby boomers in the 1970s and 1990s, during which the number of households increased and increased. Brought huge housing needs. The liberalization of the “two-child” policy will benefit from the increase in the demographic dividend in the future, which will generate new real estate demand in the long run.

From the forecast analysis of real estate experts on the popularity of the apartment, the three types of housing may become the choice of the two-child family. Specifically, including improved housing, families with two children, or considering the replacement of large-sized units to meet the needs of families, the demand for improvement will increase; school districts, high-quality school districts have been in short supply in the market, "two children alone "Policy liberalization will increase the demand for school districts, making the situation of school districts in short supply more demanding, and buying homes for their children."