good afternoon everyone. I have three questions, the first uncertainties in economic life this year; second, the sustainable development of the home industry; and third, what companies should and can do.
Zhang Lin, President of China National Forest Products Industry Association
First, the uncertainties in economic life this year. Because some people say that the industry's transaction volume will affect the building materials industry demand after 6 to 6 months, that is, the impact of the second half of this year will continue until June 30, 2012.
Second, the sustainable development of the home industry. The 10% increase is too cold for us. There is no gold, nine silver and ten silver this year. Some people say that it is cold and cold.
Third, companies should do and can do.
First, uncertain factors.
1. The pressure brought about by inflation control, 6-month inflation in four months, today we see it is falling back to 5.5 points. Because there are 6 points in four consecutive months and 5.5 points in both ends, then isn't monetary policy to continue to tighten the key to see the inflation index.
2, limit purchase and pressure housing prices. Restricted purchases and mortgage prices are definitely lagging behind some of the rigid demand, and more speculative demand has been compressed.
3. The impact of rising factor prices on labor-intensive industries is far-reaching. It is a pity that there are not many people who can see this. I shouted aloud, I hope that all of you here must see this. Our strengths are labor intensive. According to Marx's point of view, labor, production targets, labor tools, and rising factor prices, especially the rise in labor prices, are terrible for us.
4. The impact of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States on the global economy.
The first is money shortage, power shortage, and labor shortage. These three points are things that everyone needs to pay attention to. High cost and high taxation. At the 2011 APEC SME Summit, according to the survey, 10% of SMEs may be upgrading, 20% of enterprises may be undergoing transformation, and 60%-70% of enterprises are facing serious survival difficulties.
When the liquidity can be loose, I think there is hope because CPI is falling. Maybe the liquidity will be looser from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. I think the purchase restriction will not be loose, and the house price will not be loose. In the past, Premier Wen Jiabao said in Europe that he should stick to the end, but the money may be loose.
The policy of reducing the price limit will continue next year, but there is one we need to see. Pan Shiyi said that the developer is now in menopause. This is a very vivid statement. Why did he say this? That is to say, in the next 12th Five-Year Plan period, it is very likely that commercial housing will change.
Starting from the 12th Five-Year Plan, last year was more than 5.7 million sets. This year, 10 million sets were started. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, 36 million sets, that is, the proportion of commercial housing in the future is 0.72:1. The proportion of affordable housing is large. In the land of use, this is a question we need to think about.
According to the China Index Academy's testing of 20 cities during the “11†period, the transaction data of most cities declined compared with the same period of 2010, and the total transaction volume decreased by 44%. The lower bound of trading volume has direct threat to us. According to the property transaction data from September 5 to 11, the transaction volume of the 19 cities and the 19 cities decreased year-on-year, and the turnover of 11 cities fell more than 30%.
International Monetary Fund President Lagarde said on Monday that the global economy is entering a dangerous phase and global demand is likely to collapse.
Previously, global leaders failed to reach a settlement on the European debt crisis in the much-anticipated meeting. Lagarde said that if they do not cooperate with each other, they may face a situation of increased uncertainty, financial turmoil and global demand collapse. During his visit to Moscow, Lagarde urged global leaders to take decisive action to avoid a vicious circle, while economic growth has stalled or lacked vitality to aggravate the weakness in the financial sector.
Second, the demand for China's home furnishing industry continues to grow.
Mainly reflected in these aspects: 1. China's economy continues to develop at a high speed; 2. Urbanization is in a period of rapid development; 3. Population growth; 4. People's wealth is significantly improved; 5. Consumption accounts for an increase in GDP; 6. Real estate development 7, the rise of the Midwest market; 8, exports still have certain advantages.
5. The increase in the proportion of consumption in GDP is two more words. Our consumption accounts for 39% of GDP, which means that we produce 1 yuan. We spent less than 4 cents, and Chinese people dare not spend it. The Americans are 80%, and they take 8 cents in a dollar. Then we are expected to improve now, from 40% sales to 20-50 points, we have 40-50 points, because at that time we have not produced much, and our consumption will increase in the future.
The eight factors I talked about are long-term. Without these eight factors, the floor will not have to be done, and there is no good situation, but these eight factors are long-term.
I just talked about the business opportunities in the security room. Let me give you a concrete example. There is a public rental room called Sujiatun in Beijing. What kind of laminate flooring is used? I hope that the floor traders should pay attention to the public rental housing and renovation in the security room. The house, this house is likely to use the floor.
The two-track system just mentioned has a 10 million sets of affordable housing, 10 million sets of 70/sqm each, which is 700 million, and another 10 billion yuan in commercial housing. If there are 20% of the 7 billion miles in the floor, how big is this demand, everyone should be clear.
Third, in the economic adjustment, we must persist in insisting on becoming stronger and stronger. This is what we need to pay attention to. what should we do? First, changing the growth pattern in time is what we have to do. In the past, we have grown extensively, and there is no doubt about it. In the past fifteen years, we have grown 20-30% a year. There is no problem at all. Can we grow like this in the future? I don’t think it will work. I want to change the way of growth. Everyone sees that the growth of real estate is very obvious. We only say that real estate prices are rising, but now the room type is better than one year. The building materials used in one year are better than one year, and we have not kept up.
Second, corporate competition is ultimately a competition for human resources. Now that we have dug the industry from the inside, it has been no longer possible. I have proposed this proposal for four or five years. I said that you are looking for a headhunting company and looking for a layman to dig. Whether it is a listed company or a big company, it is important to slow down the growth momentum in recent years. We lack relevant talents.
Have you studied why IKEA has been very successful? Simple, well-designed, after-sales service is a headache for everyone, and IKEA does not need after-sales service. Some people say that they want to do IKEA, because dealers and manufacturers are the same brand, the first is not the same, is it? Now that the dealers and manufacturers are more and more contradictory, then you need new ideas. Need talent.
I found that this year our industry listed a cabinet company "Sofia" in China. I wrote an article to praise him, but I did not praise him for listing, but praised his innovation investment for three consecutive years of growth of 3 percentage points.
You can also use the outer brain. Since we are the grassroots, you should consult the company to improve your investment structure, improve job setup, improve job description, and improve performance appraisal. I think it is very important, we can't do it alone.
Let me give you an example. Lenovo, Lenovo should be high-tech, but Lenovo invited a consulting company, "McKinsey," which has been with him for ten years. That is, we must not only choose good people, but also use good people, and we must use the outer brain. This is still crucial to our industry.
Can you use the outer brain in the end, can't afford McKinsey, we can ask a smaller consulting company to improve our management, and we can't do it by ourselves.
Third, corporate culture. Corporate culture is first and foremost a top culture. What do you think of? What is your first name? Whether you are in the business logic, this is very important.
The first hand can't stay in the early stages of barbaric growth. Some people say that small businesses die in malnutrition, and big companies die in opportunities. Opportunities are to be grasped. We are now very strong in the government. There are many opportunities under the strong government situation. The tax burden policy of A and B is different, and the preferential policies are different, but you cannot make opportunism. You become opportunistic. This enterprise is always barbaric and will not go to the path of standardization.
The management cost of large enterprises is high, but the transaction costs of large enterprises are low, and the transaction costs of small enterprises are high. Think about whether this is the case.
In summary, there are three sentences:
The first sentence: Everyone must persist and hold the group for the winter. This year may be more difficult than in 2008. In 2008, we called the group to spend the winter, and in 2009 we released 4 trillion to save our lives. And everyone has to prepare, the first half of next year is still relatively cold, because this year's volume growth is insufficient, directly affecting demand.
But everyone has to look at what to look at in the second half of the year? Looking at the macroeconomic work meeting, in the next two sessions in March next year, the central government’s views on the meeting, the views on the region, the views on monetary policy, and the layout of next year will come out. It also inevitably affects exports, and we only have to adapt to it.
The second sentence: 20 years of flooring is still a good industry.
The third sentence: I hope that our flooring companies will do their internal work, grasp the corporate culture, and strengthen corporate management. We will do this seriously, we will laugh at the end, thank you.
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